@Article{AlvesChaMoiBroAnt:2021:AsRaVa,
               author = "Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Chadwick, Robin and Moise, Aurel and 
                         Brown, Josephine and Antonio, Marengo Jos{\'e}",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Met Office 
                         Hadley Centre} and {Bureau of Meteorology} and {Bureau of 
                         Meteorology} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil 
                         across multiple timescales",
              journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "41",
               number = "S1",
                pages = "E1875--E1888",
                month = "Jan.",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 2: Fome zero e Agricultura 
                         sustent{\'a}vel}",
             keywords = "Brazil, climate change, climate extremes, rainfall, variability.",
             abstract = "Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial 
                         issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the 
                         environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture, 
                         and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate 
                         change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of 
                         society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of 
                         climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model 
                         projections of the change in rainfall variability at various 
                         temporal scales over sub-regions of Brazil. For this, daily data 
                         from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (19002005) and future 
                         (20502100) experiments under a high-emission scenario are used. We 
                         assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a 
                         band-pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly, 
                         intra-seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time 
                         scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is 
                         evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The 
                         results show that models largely agree on increases in variability 
                         on all timescales in all sub-regions, except on ENSO timescales 
                         where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil 
                         will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is, 
                         drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on 
                         daily, weekly, monthly, and intra-seasonal timescales, even in 
                         sub-regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently 
                         uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change 
                         adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource 
                         sectors in Brazil.",
                  doi = "10.1002/joc.6818",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6818",
                 issn = "0899-8418",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "alves_assessment.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 maio 2024"
}